This study provides insight in the future upload and download bandwidth demand for residential broadband connections, by answering the following research question: How will upload and download bandwidth change between now and 2020?
A prospective quantitative model of bandwidth demand was developed in order to answer the research question. The figure below shows the estimated rise in demand over the coming seven years, expressed as the average speed of a sufficient subscription. This means that this subscription satisfies the demand of the average user. In 2013, the average sufficient provisioned speeds are estimated as 15.3 Mbit/s (downstream) and around 1.6 Mbit/s (upstream). Note that this is an average: very large differences exist between different user groups. The demand for bandwidth is expected to grow exponentially over the next seven years. The CAGR (compound annual growth rate) is 40% for downstream and 44% for upstream traffic demand. In 2020, sufficient subscription speeds for the average user are forecast to be approximately 165 Mbit/s (downstream) and 20 Mbit/s (upstream).
Authors: Tommy van der Vorst, David van Kerkhof, Reg Brennenraedts (Dialogic); Rudi Bekkers (TU/e).
Download the report: Fast forward: how the speed of the internet will develop between now and 2020